Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
(+100/-120)+125
As the MLB season winds down, the Los Angeles Angels host the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium on September 28, 2024, in an American League West matchup. Both teams have had disappointing seasons, with the Angels sitting at a dismal 63-97 and the Rangers slightly better at 76-84. Despite the Angels’ struggles, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees potential value in betting on them, projecting a 49% win probability, which is 6% higher than the market suggests.
On the mound, the Angels are set to start right-hander Griffin Canning, whose 6-13 record and 5.24 ERA reflect a challenging season. However, his 4.74 xERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, hinting at better performances ahead. Canning is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with below-average strikeouts and high hits and walks allowed.
The Rangers counter with lefty Andrew Heaney, who carries a 5-14 record and a solid 3.98 ERA. Despite this, Heaney’s projections aren’t stellar, with expectations of 4.7 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed. His strikeout numbers are average, but like Canning, he’s projected to allow a high number of hits and walks.
Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Angels rank 26th in overall offense, 28th in batting average, and 23rd in home runs, though their stolen base ranking is a respectable 11th. The Rangers fare slightly better, with a 25th-ranked offense, 22nd in batting average, and 19th in home runs, but they lag in stolen bases at 20th.
In their last outing, the Angels leaned on Jack Lopez, who has been hot over the past week with a .471 batting average and a 1.324 OPS. Meanwhile, Wyatt Langford has been the standout for the Rangers, posting a .304 batting average, 1.103 OPS, and three home runs in the same span.
With both teams out of playoff contention, this game is more about pride and evaluating talent for the future. Despite being underdogs, the Angels might offer betting value given their projected win probability.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.5% more often this season (48.8%) than he did last year (42.3%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Leody Taveras has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 6.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Texas Rangers batters as a group grade out 22nd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 7.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Griffin Canning’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 94-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Kevin Pillar’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 87.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Today, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (93rd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 53 games at home (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.90 Units / 38% ROI)