Prediction and Game Breakdown: Reds vs Cubs Match Friday May 30, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

On May 30, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season, with a 35-21 record, ranking them firmly in the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Reds sit at 28-29, reflecting an average performance thus far. In their last outings, the Cubs claimed victory over the Reds, winning 2-1 on May 28, while the Reds fell short, losing 3-2.

Colin Rea will take the mound for the Cubs, looking to bounce back after a tough outing where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings. Despite being ranked the 188th best starting pitcher in MLB, Rea boasts a solid 3.28 ERA this season. However, his 3.97 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could be due for regression. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his average performance.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has been impressive, sporting a 1.77 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record this season. However, his 4.08 xFIP indicates he, too, might face challenges ahead. Abbott’s projections show he might struggle, especially as he faces a Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in MLB and has hit 79 home runs this season.

With the Cubs holding the edge in offensive firepower and Rea’s ability to limit damage, the Cubs appear well-positioned to secure a win. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations of a competitive matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andrew Abbott’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this season (91.3 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Colin Rea.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters as a unit rank in the cellar of baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) as it relates to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 77% ROI)