Prediction and Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Brewers Match (09/07/2024)

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 9, 2024, at American Family Field. This National League Central matchup sees the Brewers, currently having a strong season with a 53-38 record, taking on the below-average Pirates, who sit at 43-47.

Milwaukee enters this game on a high note after defeating the Dodgers 9-2 on July 7, 2024, despite being a significant underdog. The Brewers’ offense, which ranks 7th best in MLB, boasts an impressive batting average (4th) and is highly effective on the base paths (2nd in stolen bases). Christian Yelich has been particularly hot, batting .391 with a 1.395 OPS over the last week.

Colin Rea will take the mound for the Brewers. Despite his 8-2 record and a solid 3.34 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season. His 4.53 xFIP indicates potential regression. However, Rea’s low strikeout rate might play well against the Pirates’ offense, which is 5th in strikeouts and ranks 27th overall.

The Pirates will counter with Josh Fleming, a lefty who has split time between the bullpen and starting rotation. Fleming’s 4.13 ERA suggests he’s been slightly unlucky, with a 3.57 xERA indicating better performance ahead. However, his projections for this game are less than stellar, with an expected 4.4 innings pitched and only 2.7 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 24th in batting average and 27th overall. Bryan Reynolds has been their standout player, boasting a .278 batting average and a .823 OPS. Michael A. Taylor has been a bright spot recently, hitting .444 with a 1.278 OPS over the last week.

The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a closer contest, giving the Brewers a 51% chance to win. The Pirates’ implied win probability from the betting market is 39%, but the projections suggest they have a 49% chance, indicating potential value for bettors looking at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jack Suwinski has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 88.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rowdy Tellez hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Josh Fleming.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 22 away games (+10.45 Units / 47% ROI)