Prediction and Game Breakdown: Phillies vs Mets Match Tuesday April 22, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

On April 22, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field in a crucial National League East matchup. The Mets, currently sitting at 16-7, are having a strong season, while the Phillies stand at 13-10, also performing well. In their last encounter, the Mets fell to the Phillies, and both teams will be looking to gain momentum as they continue their series.

Starting for the Mets is Griffin Canning, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and a solid ERA of 3.43 this season. However, advanced statistics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his SIERA of 3.95 indicates potential regression. Canning has struggled with control, boasting an 11.4 BB% and will face a Phillies lineup that leads MLB in walks. This could prove to be a challenging matchup for him.

Opposing him will be Cristopher Sanchez, who has been exceptional this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.96. Sanchez ranks as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the mound. He also presents a favorable matchup against the Mets’ offense, which ranks 20th overall and struggles against high-strikeout pitchers.

While the Mets’ offense has been inconsistent, they do have a standout hitter performing well recently, recording a .379 batting average and a 1.231 OPS over the last week. However, they will need to capitalize on their chances against Sanchez if they hope to overcome the projected average Game Total of 8.0 runs.

Betting markets have set the Mets at +110, suggesting they are not favored despite their strong season. Given the current dynamics, this matchup presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the mismatch between the two starting pitchers.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez (54.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Bryson Stott’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.9-mph figure last season has fallen off to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Griffin Canning’s slider usage has increased by 12.5% from last season to this one (24% to 36.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 36% ROI)