Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
(-105/-115)-155
As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race as the season progresses. The Astros sit at 57-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays are just a game behind at 56-54, marking a middle-of-the-road performance. This matchup is crucial, especially since the Astros lost to the Rays 6-1 in their last game on August 3, where they struggled against Tampa’s pitching.
On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a rough season with a 4-9 record and a troubling ERA of 5.58. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP sits at 4.43, indicating potential for improvement. Arrighetti’s average projections for innings pitched and earned runs suggest he could provide a decent outing, but his tendency to allow hits and walks could be problematic.
Conversely, the Rays will send Hunter Bigge to the mound, who has been effective with a stellar ERA of 1.69 this season. However, his xFIP of 2.79 suggests he might be due for regression. Bigge’s high strikeout rate of 31.8% could be a concern for the Astros, who rank as the 3rd least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. This matchup could favor Houston, as they have the 2nd best team batting average in the league.
The projections indicate the Astros have a solid chance to bounce back, with a high implied team total of 4.70 runs. Given their strong offensive performance and the potential for Arrighetti to outperform expectations, this game could be closer than the previous encounter. With both teams looking to gain momentum in this competitive series, fans can expect an exciting matchup at Minute Maid Park.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jose Siri has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 101.6-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Tampa Bay’s 88-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #28 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Houston Astros Insights
- Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)In terms of his home runs, Yainer Diaz has had bad variance on his side this year. His 14.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.5.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-150)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)