Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-180
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates clash again on July 27, 2024, at Chase Field for the second game of their series. The D-Backs, sitting at 54-50, are having an above-average season and looking to build on their 4-3 victory over the Pirates yesterday. The Pirates, at 52-51, are having an average season and will aim to bounce back after yesterday’s narrow defeat.
On the mound for the D-Backs is Brandon Pfaadt, the #64 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pfaadt has a solid 3.74 ERA this season and is coming off an impressive outing on July 21, where he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball with 7 strikeouts. His projected performance today includes 5.3 innings, 2.4 earned runs, and 5.5 strikeouts, which aligns with his above-average season thus far.
The Pirates will counter with Marco Gonzales, who, despite an excellent 2.70 ERA, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB due to his underlying metrics. His 4.23 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate this season, and the projections have him allowing 3.2 earned runs and striking out just 3.5 batters over 5.3 innings. This mismatch on the mound could be a key factor in today’s game.
Offensively, the D-Backs boast the 9th best lineup in MLB, featuring Ketel Marte, who has been stellar with a .296 batting average and 22 home runs. Over the last week, Joc Pederson has been their hottest hitter, posting a 1.159 OPS with 2 home runs in 5 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense ranks 27th, with Oneil Cruz leading the charge, but overall, they struggle to generate runs consistently.
The D-Backs bullpen ranks 14th, slightly better than average, while the Pirates’ bullpen is 9th, providing a solid back-end. However, with the advantage in starting pitching and a stronger lineup, Arizona is the favorite. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the D-Backs a 60% win probability, aligning closely with their implied probability of 62%. Expect Arizona to capitalize on their advantages and secure another win.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Marco Gonzales – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Marco Gonzales is projected to strikeout 3.4 hitters in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Michael A. Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Brandon Pfaadt’s sinker percentage has increased by 11% from last season to this one (9.9% to 20.9%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Jake McCarthy has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)