Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
(-110/-110)+100
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 20, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams are in the thick of the National League East race. With the Phillies holding a record of 91-62, they’re having a remarkable season, currently sitting atop the division standings. The Mets, at 85-68, are also enjoying a strong campaign and remain in the hunt for a playoff berth, although they’re trailing the Phillies in the standings.
Last night, these division rivals clashed in the first game of their series, setting the stage for another highly competitive matchup. The Mets will send left-hander David Peterson to the mound, who has been impressive this season with a 2.85 ERA, even though his peripheral stats suggest he might have benefited from some luck. On the opposing side, Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball for the Phillies. Ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, Sanchez boasts a solid 3.24 ERA across 29 starts and is known for inducing ground balls, a skill that might help neutralize the Mets’ powerful lineup.
Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 4th best in MLB, showcasing strong batting averages and a knack for swiping bases. Meanwhile, the Mets feature a potent offense of their own, ranking 5th in home runs. Luisangel Acuna has been red-hot for New York over the past week, hitting .421 with 2 homers, while Bryce Harper remains a consistent force for Philadelphia, belting 3 homers and driving in 7 runs in his last seven games.
While the betting markets see this as an evenly matched contest, with both teams at -110, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge, projecting them to win with a 56% probability. This suggests potential value in favoring Philadelphia in this crucial division showdown. Both teams are expected to keep the scoreboard tight, with low implied team totals of 3.75 runs each, making every play and decision count.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Over his last 3 games started, Cristopher Sanchez has seen a big spike in his fastball velocity: from 93.9 mph over the entire season to 94.9 mph lately.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Bryce Harper has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Recording 17.4 outs per outing this year on average, David Peterson checks in at the 83rd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)Extreme groundball hitters like Starling Marte tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be smart to expect worse results for the New York Mets offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 96 games (+18.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+17.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)