Player Trends for Mets vs White Sox – Sunday, September 1st, 2024

New York Mets

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Chicago White Sox

As September approaches, the New York Mets travel to face the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 1, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are coming off a matchup yesterday, where the Mets outlasted the White Sox with a score of 5-3, further solidifying their position with a record of 72-64. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled mightily this season, sitting at 31-106 and ranking 30th in offense across MLB.

The Mets, boasting the 10th best offense in the league, can lean on star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who is having an impressive season with 28 home runs and a .828 OPS. In contrast, the White Sox’s best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, faces a challenging task against a strong Mets lineup.

On the mound, Chicago’s Garrett Crochet will take the hill. Despite a 6-9 record and a respectable 3.64 ERA, Crochet ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his potential to perform well. However, projections show he may struggle with allowing 3.4 hits per game, which could be problematic against a potent Mets offense. Opposing him is New York’s Sean Manaea, who has recorded a solid 10-5 record with a 3.51 ERA. After a strong outing in his last start, where he pitched 7 innings with 11 strikeouts, Manaea enters this matchup with good momentum.

While the betting market has the Mets as favorites with a moneyline of -165, projections suggest this could be a closer contest than anticipated. The White Sox may have a sneaky opportunity as the projections see them scoring around 4.02 runs, giving them a shot to capitalize on any mistakes from Manaea. Expect a competitive game, with both teams looking to establish themselves as they close out the series.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last year (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Despite posting a .369 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has been very fortunate given the .052 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Garrett Crochet has averaged 75.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 5th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Lenyn Sosa is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 78 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-170)
  Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)