Player Trends for Mets vs Rockies – Saturday, June 7th, 2025

New York Mets

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Colorado Rockies

On June 7, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Mets at Coors Field for the second game of their series. The Rockies, struggling this season with a record of 12-51, are looking to turn things around against a Mets team that boasts a solid 40-24 record. In their previous matchup on June 6, the Mets emerged victorious, winning 4-2, while the Rockies continue to seek answers after a lackluster performance.

German Marquez is projected to take the mound for Colorado, aiming to improve upon a challenging year where he has posted a 2-7 record and a troubling 6.98 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.87, indicating potential for better outcomes. Marquez is expected to pitch about 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs with a low strikeout projection of 3.7 batters.

On the other side, Clay Holmes is slated to start for the Mets. With a record of 6-3 and an impressive 3.07 ERA, Holmes has been a key contributor to the Mets’ success. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (56 GB%) aligns well against a Rockies offense that ranks 29th in MLB, making it a favorable matchup for the Mets.

While the Rockies’ offense ranks dead last in team batting average and home runs, the Mets rank 7th overall, showcasing a significant disparity in offensive production. The projections suggest that the Mets are likely to score heavily, with an implied team total of 6.82 runs compared to the Rockies’ 4.18. Given the current state of both teams, the Mets enter this game as substantial favorites, looking to capitalize on the Rockies’ woes in what could be another challenging outing for Colorado.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Clay Holmes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Hunter Goodman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 102-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 51% ROI)