Player Trends for Marlins vs Phillies – Sunday, April 20th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to take on the Miami Marlins in a pivotal National League East matchup on April 20, 2025, they will look to build on their recent victory, where they edged the Marlins 11-10 yesterday. The Phillies currently sit at 13-8 this season, showcasing strong offensive capabilities, ranking 5th in MLB, despite struggles with home runs, checking in at 21st.

Starting for the Phillies is Jesus Luzardo, who has proven to be a reliable option this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.31. Luzardo, who ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, projects to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out 7.0 batters. His high-flyball tendencies may play to his advantage against a Marlins lineup that has shown little power, ranking 25th in home runs with only 15 this season.

On the other hand, the Marlins will counter with Connor Gillispie, who has struggled significantly with a 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 6.63. Gillispie’s last start saw him surrender 8 earned runs over 5 innings, highlighting his ongoing difficulties. While projections suggest he may improve, he currently projects to pitch a mere 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Given the disparities in pitching quality and the Phillies’ offensive depth, they enter this game as substantial favorites, holding a moneyline of -320, which equates to a 74% implied probability of winning. The Marlins, languishing at 8-12, will need to overcome significant odds to pull off an upset in this matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Connor Gillispie – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Connor Gillispie’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (72.5% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme flyball batters like Dane Myers tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rob Brantly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Rob Brantly ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-310)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Alec Bohm is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Philadelphia Phillies (20.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Javier Sanoja has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 96% ROI)