Player Trends for Mariners vs Yankees – Wednesday, July 9th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Seattle Mariners on July 9, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Yankees recently bested the Mariners 10-3 in their previous game, showcasing their powerful offense. Currently, New York stands at 50-41, with a solid season that places them in contention for a strong playoff run. Meanwhile, Seattle, at 48-43, is also having an above-average year, making this series significant for both teams.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Cam Schlitter, who ranks as the 144th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. While he has had a decent season, projections indicate he may struggle today, allowing 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings pitched. Schlitter’s tendency to give up 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks per outing could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that ranks 8th in home runs this season.

Opposing Schlitter is Logan Evans, who has had a mixed season. Despite his impressive 2.96 ERA, his 4.34 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. Evans is coming off a strong outing on July 3, where he pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. However, he projects to allow 3.2 earned runs today while pitching just 4.7 innings, which may not be enough against the Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 1st in MLB.

With the Yankees boasting the best offense in the league and a high implied team total of 5.53 runs, they enter this game as betting favorites. The projections favor the Yankees, indicating they could capitalize on Evans’s vulnerabilities while navigating Schlitter’s own challenges. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the Game Total currently set at 10.0 runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Logan Evans’s fastball velocity of 86.6 mph grades out in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Cameron Schlittler is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)