Player Trends for Mariners vs Astros – Tuesday, September 24th, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners are set for an American League West showdown at Minute Maid Park on September 24, 2024. As the regular season winds down, both teams are fighting for playoff spots, adding extra weight to this matchup. The Astros have an 85-72 record, while the Mariners trail at 81-76, making each game critical in the hunt for a postseason berth.

The Astros, coming off a victory against the Mariners yesterday, will send the elite Framber Valdez to the mound. Valdez, ranked as the 13th-best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a 14-7 record with a stellar 2.85 ERA, though his SIERA suggests some regression might be looming. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters. With the 8th-best offense and 3rd-best team batting average, Houston aims to capitalize on Valdez’s solid form and their powerful lineup.

Seattle counters with Logan Gilbert, who ranks 16th among major league starters. Despite an 8-11 record, Gilbert holds a 3.24 ERA and is known for his high strikeout rate. However, the Astros’ lineup is adept at minimizing strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of Gilbert’s strengths. The Mariners’ offense, ranked 22nd overall and 29th in batting average, will need to lean on Julio Rodriguez, who has been on fire lately with a .457 average over the past week.

The Astros bullpen, ranked 5th, offers a stark contrast to the Mariners’ 23rd-ranked relief corps, giving Houston a late-game edge. Though the Astros are betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a 48% chance of victory—4% higher than the betting market suggests. This discrepancy hints at potential value for those eyeing an underdog bet on Seattle. As both teams vie for crucial wins, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Recording 19.1 outs per start this year on average, Logan Gilbert places him the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Framber Valdez’s curveball rate has jumped by 6.3% from last season to this one (24.4% to 30.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Houston Astros (18.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 137 games (+16.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+14.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Justin Turner has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 61% ROI)