Player Stats for Royals vs Braves – September 27th, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals face off in an intriguing matchup on September 27, 2024, at Truist Park. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Braves boasting an 86-71 record and the Royals close behind at 85-74. The Braves still have hopes of making the playoffs, while the Royals will look to gain momentum despite being eliminated from the division title.

Atlanta’s odds are bolstered by the presence of Max Fried on the mound, currently ranked as the 4th-best starting pitcher, making him an elite force. Fried, with a 3.42 ERA across 28 starts, is projected to provide a solid 6 innings, allowing only 2.1 earned runs. In contrast, Royals’ starter Brady Singer has shown chinks in the armor, with a 3.73 ERA over 31 starts. The expected progression to his xERA suggests possible regression, setting up a challenging contest against the Braves’ power lineup.

Kansas City’s offense ranks 14th overall and will try to counter act any threats with their solid batting average, ranked 7th. That’s a fair match up against Atlanta’s 4th-ranked home run power. The Royals might benefit from Singer’s groundball tendency, aiming to neutralize Atlanta’s long-ball capabilities.

In the bullpens, the Braves hold a slight edge with their 8th-ranked unit, just ahead of Kansas City at 10th. Both teams look to leverage their bullpens to close out what could be a tight contest.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Braves a strong 63% win projection, reinforcing their status as the favorite. The Royals, meanwhile, must overcome both odds and their win probability to begin the series on a high note. Expect a tactical clash where pitching finesse and strategic hitting performances could make all the difference.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Brady Singer has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed bats in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 149 games (+32.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)