Player Stats for Orioles vs Blue Jays – August 6th, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the American League East standings. The Orioles, with a robust record of 67-46, are enjoying a great season and are firmly in contention for the playoffs. In stark contrast, the Blue Jays sit at 51-61, struggling through a below-average year.

In their most recent outings, the Blue Jays faced a tough matchup, while the Orioles continued their strong performance, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Orioles rank as the 2nd best offense in MLB, bolstered by their league-leading home run tally. Conversely, the Blue Jays rank 19th in offensive output and 27th in home runs, indicating a significant gap in offensive capabilities.

On the mound, Chris Bassitt is projected to start for the Blue Jays. He’s had a rollercoaster season with an 8-10 record and a 4.02 ERA, ranking him 65th among starting pitchers. While his strikeout and earned run projections are average, his tendency to give up hits (projected at 5.3) and walks (projected at 2.0) could be problematic against a high-powered Orioles lineup.

Grayson Rodriguez, slated to start for Baltimore, boasts a commendable 13-4 record and a 3.86 ERA, ranking him 46th overall. His high strikeout rate (26.5 K%) could pose challenges for the Blue Jays, who rank as the 4th least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. This dynamic may play to Toronto’s advantage, as they could capitalize on Rodriguez’s occasional struggles.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Blue Jays enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, suggesting a projected team total of 3.92 runs. Meanwhile, the Orioles are favored at -145, with a higher implied team total of 4.58 runs. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially for the Orioles as they look to solidify their dominance in the division.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Grayson Rodriguez’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (95.4 mph) below where it was last season (96.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-150)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected offense profiles as the best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Chris Bassitt has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year’s 92.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 43 games (+20.95 Units / 44% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 104 games (+14.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 19 games (+21.00 Units / 96% ROI)