Player Stats for D-Backs vs Padres – July 06, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres gear up to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 6, 2024, at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Padres took the first game in a high-scoring affair, edging out the Diamondbacks 10-8. This National League West showdown features two teams with contrasting seasons: the Padres, sitting at 49-43, are having an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks, at 43-45, are hovering around average.

Both teams come into this game with right-handed starters. The Padres will send Matt Waldron to the mound, who has been somewhat fortunate this season. Despite a solid 3.56 ERA, his 4.12 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store. Waldron, ranked 179th among approximately 350 pitchers, has a 5-7 record this year. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average, which indicates a decent but not dominant performance.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has had a tough-luck season. His 4.28 ERA belies his 3.36 xERA, implying he’s been better than his numbers suggest. Pfaadt, ranked 86th, has a 3-6 record and is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs. His recent outing was impressive, with 6 innings of 1-run ball and 8 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Padres have a slight edge, ranking 8th overall in MLB, with standout rankings in batting average (2nd) and home runs (7th). Jurickson Profar has been their most consistent hitter, boasting a .316 average and a .899 OPS. Meanwhile, Manny Machado has been on fire over the past week, hitting .320 with 4 homers and a 1.186 OPS.

The Diamondbacks’ offense, ranked 9th, isn’t far behind. Christian Walker has been their best hitter, with a .266 average and a .858 OPS. Walker has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .520 with 5 home runs and a 1.826 OPS.

The Padres’ bullpen, ranked 9th, should provide a stability edge over the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, which ranks 21st. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Padres a 58% chance of winning this game, making them the favorites with a slight edge over the betting markets’ implied probability of 55%.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Recording 18.2 outs per GS this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-180/+135)
  Matt Waldron’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (64% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Kyle Higashioka’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 73.5-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-180/+135)
  Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.80 Units / 61% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)