Player Stats for Cubs vs Cardinals – June 25th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on June 25, 2025, both teams are coming off a thrilling matchup the day before, where the Cardinals edged out the Cubs with an 8-7 victory. This game marks the third in their series, and both teams are eager to gain momentum as they vie for positioning in the National League Central.

Currently, the Cubs sit atop the division with a record of 46-33, showcasing an impressive offense that ranks 4th in MLB. They have demonstrated power with their 4th best home run tally and have a solid batting average, ranking 8th overall. In contrast, the Cardinals, with a record of 44-36, have had a decent season but are still looking to improve. Their offense ranks 12th in MLB, with a good batting average of 6th, but they struggle in the power department, sitting 18th in home runs.

On the mound, the Cardinals will send Erick Fedde, who has had a mixed season with a 3-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.54. However, his 4.93 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, and he projects to allow an average of 3.2 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a potent Cubs lineup. Matthew Boyd, the Cubs’ starter, has been more effective with a 6-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.84. The projections indicate that Boyd may allow an average of 2.6 earned runs, making him a favorable matchup against the Cardinals’ offense.

With the Cardinals currently listed as underdogs at +135, there may be value in betting on them, especially considering they just defeated the Cubs and have a solid home-field advantage at Busch Stadium. While the Cubs are favored, the Cardinals’ recent performance and their ability to compete closely in this series could lead to another tightly contested game. The total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, hinting at the potential for a high-scoring affair.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Erick Fedde is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Brendan Donovan has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 94.6-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly rank 27th- in the league for power this year when using their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 58 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-20000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+13.00 Units / 325% ROI)