Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
(+100/-120)-220
The Detroit Tigers will host the Chicago White Sox on April 5, 2025, at Comerica Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Tigers holding a 3-4 record while the White Sox stand at 2-5. The Tigers’ offense ranks 19th in Major League Baseball, indicating an average performance, but they boast the 5th best bullpen according to advanced metrics, which could play a crucial role in tight games.
In their previous meeting, the Tigers managed to edge out the White Sox, adding to Chicago’s woes as they continue to seek consistency. On the mound, the Tigers will send out Reese Olson, who has had a tough start to the year with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 7.71. However, his xFIP of 3.37 suggests that he’s been somewhat unlucky and may have better performances ahead. Olson is projected to pitch approximately 5.9 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters, which is average.
On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Davis Martin, who remarkably carries a perfect 0.00 ERA after one start. Yet, his xFIP of 4.25 indicates he may not be as fortunate moving forward. The projections suggest that he’ll pitch around 5.0 innings, giving up an average of 2.6 earned runs and striking out only 4.6 batters per game.
The Tigers come into this matchup as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -220, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.43 runs against a lowly White Sox offense that has struggled mightily this season, ranking 35th in both batting average and overall offense. As both teams look to find their footing, the Tigers appear to have the upper hand, particularly with their robust bullpen and home-field advantage.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under Pitching OutsDavis Martin has recorded 14.2 outs per game per started since the start of last season, placing in the 10th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Travis Jankowski will have the handedness advantage against Reese Olson today.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Reese Olson has gone to his slider 5.5% more often this season (33.3%) than he did last year (27.8%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (-105)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 93 games (+19.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 48 away games (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+8.50 Units / 121% ROI)