Player Rankings for Rockies vs Tigers – 9/10/24

Colorado Rockies

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on September 10, 2024, at Comerica Park, this matchup marks the beginning of an interleague series. The Tigers are currently positioned with a record of 73-71, indicating a mediocre season, while the Rockies languish at 54-90, having endured a dismal campaign. Both teams are not vying for the postseason, but they will look to finish strong.

In their last outing on September 8, the Tigers dominated the Oakland Athletics with a convincing 9-1 victory. Keider Montero, who struggled in his last start by allowing five earned runs over four innings, will take the mound for Detroit. Despite being ranked as the 288th best starting pitcher out of roughly 350 this season, the projections show he may perform better moving forward—a key point considering he faces a Rockies lineup that ranks as the 2nd most strikeout-prone offense in the league.

Bradley Blalock, projected to start for Colorado, has also faltered this season and carries a concerning ERA of 5.40. Despite his issues, he recently managed to pitch reasonably well against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing four earned runs in five innings. The Rockies will need him to make a statement against a Tigers offense that ranks 25th overall in the league, which means opportunities may arise for better results, especially against a pitcher like Montero.

Betting lines show the Tigers as significant favorites with a moneyline of -205, while the Rockies sit at +175, reflecting their underdog status for this matchup. However, looking at other projections, Detroit’s expected total of 4.96 runs aligns with their offensive struggles, while Colorado’s expected total of 3.54 runs may be a generous estimate given their performance this season. This game promises to be an important showing for both teams as they look to build momentum toward the season’s end.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Bradley Blalock will benefit from going up against 6 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Brendan Rodgers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #22 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Keider Montero’s 94.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 77th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Parker Meadows can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Parker Meadows hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 49 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)