Player Rankings for Rockies vs Orioles – 7/25/25

Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on July 25, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Orioles sit at 45-57, while the Rockies are languishing at 26-76. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the stakes are relatively low as both teams are well out of contention.

In their last outing, the Orioles dropped a close game, further emphasizing their challenges this season. On the mound, Baltimore will lean on Dean Kremer, who has had an up-and-down year with an 8-7 record and a 4.06 ERA. Though Kremer’s Power Rankings place him at the 131st best starting pitcher in MLB, he faces a Rockies lineup that has struck out the 2nd most in the league, potentially playing to his advantage as a low-strikeout pitcher.

Opposing Kremer will be Kyle Freeland, who has struggled mightily this season with a 2-10 record and a 5.19 ERA. Freeland’s projections suggest he may have been unlucky, but his performance has still been below average. With the Rockies ranking 25th in offensive production and batting average, they will need to find a way to capitalize on Kremer’s weaknesses.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 22nd in the league, but they do boast an average power ranking in home runs, which could be critical against a Rockies pitching staff that has also been inconsistent. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Orioles’ high implied team total of 5.28 runs, as they look to capitalize on Freeland’s struggles. This matchup may not have playoff implications, but it certainly offers an intriguing look at two teams striving to find their footing.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Kyle Freeland has a mean projection of 3.27 earned runs today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Michael Toglia is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Hunter Goodman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dean Kremer’s four-seamer rate has decreased by 6.1% from last season to this one (32.1% to 26%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Ramon Laureano has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Orioles projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .328 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+12.08 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.70 Units / 48% ROI)