Player Rankings for Rays vs Athletics – 8/21/24

Tampa Bay Rays

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Oakland Athletics

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on August 21, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League. The Athletics currently sit at 54-72, struggling this season, while the Rays are slightly better at 63-62, sitting right around the .500 mark. This game marks the third in this series, with the Rays winning the previous matchup 1-0, thanks to a stellar performance from Ryan Pepiot, who tossed five scoreless innings.

Mitch Spence is projected to start for the Athletics. He has had a tough season, ranking as the 196th best starting pitcher in MLB and coming off a rough outing where he allowed five earned runs in just three innings. While Spence has an average ERA of 4.64, his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.88 suggests he may be due for some better fortune. However, he faces a Rays lineup that has struggled overall, ranking 25th in offensive production this season.

Ryan Pepiot, on the other hand, enters this matchup ranked 45th among starting pitchers. With a solid 3.69 ERA, he has been effective, particularly in his last start where he kept the Athletics scoreless over five innings. Pepiot’s ability to generate strikeouts (26.5% strikeout rate) could be beneficial against an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts.

Betting markets indicate a close game, with the Athletics’ moneyline at +115 and the Rays at -135. The projections suggest that the Athletics may score around 3.63 runs, while the Rays are expected to put up about 4.27 runs. Given Pepiot’s recent form and Spence’s struggles, Tampa Bay appears to have the edge in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  In his previous game started, Ryan Pepiot turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  By putting up a .141 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Alex Jackson is positioned in the 2nd percentile.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mitch Spence is expected to ring up an average of 17.1 outs in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s game, Tyler Nevin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 40.9% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 74 of their last 120 games (+25.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-270)
  Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 41% ROI)