Player Rankings for Nationals vs Marlins – 9/03/24

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals prepare to square off on September 3, 2024, the contest marks the first game of the series and carries significant stakes for both teams. The Marlins currently sit at 51-86, struggling through a tough season, while the Nationals hold a record of 61-76, also battling inconsistency. Both teams are well out of playoff contention.

In their last outing, the Marlins managed a surprising 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants, showcasing their potential despite an overall disappointing year. Meanwhile, the Nationals faced a brutal 14-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs, highlighting their struggles, particularly against strong offenses.

Max Meyer is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. Although his record of 3-4 and ERA of 5.44 suggest struggles, his 4.46 xFIP indicates he may have been unfortunate in his performances. Meyer’s high groundball rate of 51% could be advantageous against a Nationals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs, making them less likely to capitalize on his mistakes. However, his low strikeout rate and the Nationals’ ability to make contact could pose challenges.

On the other side, Patrick Corbin is expected to pitch for the Nationals. With a 4-12 record and an ERA of 5.50, he has also had his share of difficulties. His last start on August 27 featured a commendable performance, tossing six innings without allowing a run. Corbin’s groundball rate matches Meyer’s at 49%, which could neutralize the Marlins’ lack of power as they rank 29th in home runs this season.

Despite the apparent records, the leading MLB projection system suggests the Marlins might have the edge, projecting them to score 4.97 runs against the Nationals’ 4.31 runs. This game could be closer than the standings would indicate, making it a compelling matchup in an otherwise disappointing season for both teams.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starters, Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity of 90.9 mph is in the 12th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Gallo stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Max Meyer projects to average 16.6 outs in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.346) implies that Jesus Sanchez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .307 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez, Cristian Pache).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.45 Units / 37% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 128 games (+10.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+8.85 Units / 68% ROI)