Player Rankings for Cubs vs Mets – 5/10/25

Chicago Cubs

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field on May 10, 2025, in a pivotal National League matchup. The Mets currently sit atop the NL East with a strong 25-14 record, showcasing their offensive prowess as they rank 5th in the league. Meanwhile, the Cubs, with a decent 22-17 record, are 3rd in the NL Central and looking to close the gap in their division.

In their previous game, the Mets secured a convincing 7-2 victory over the Cubs, further solidifying their strong start to the season. Tylor Megill is projected to take the mound for New York, entering with a solid 3-2 record and an impressive 2.50 ERA. Although advanced stats suggest he may have benefited from some luck this season, Megill still ranks 56th among MLB starters and has shown competence in his seven starts. However, he does struggle with walks, which could be a concern against a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in drawing walks.

On the other side, Brad Keller is expected to start for Chicago. While his 3.78 ERA is respectable, his underlying metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting he may improve as the season progresses. That said, Keller has struggled recently, having been hit hard in his last outing, surrendering 5 earned runs over just 4 innings.

The Mets’ offense, bolstered by their best hitter’s recent hot streak—where he’s recorded a .318 batting average over the last week—will look to capitalize on Keller’s vulnerabilities. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a competitive matchup. With the Mets favored at -150, they appear well-positioned to extend their winning streak against a struggling Cubs team.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Brad Keller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Brad Keller to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Kyle Tucker will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tylor Megill has utilized his non-fastballs 9.6% less often this season (34.1%) than he did last season (43.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+12.75 Units / 50% ROI)