Player Rankings for Angels vs Athletics – 7/19/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 19, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. This American League West matchup features two teams struggling this season, with the Athletics sporting a 37-61 record and the Angels not faring much better at 41-55.

On the mound, the Athletics will start JP Sears, a left-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season. With a 6-7 Win/Loss record and a 4.56 ERA, Sears has been average according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which ranks him as the 162nd best starting pitcher. Sears is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.7 batters on average.

The Angels will counter with Griffin Canning, a right-hander whose season has been less impressive. Canning holds a 3-9 Win/Loss record and a 4.84 ERA, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. Projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, Canning’s matchup against the Athletics’ high-strikeout offense could tilt in his favor, as his low 15.7% strikeout rate might exploit Oakland’s 2nd highest strikeout rate in MLB.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 25th in MLB, with a particularly poor team batting average (28th). However, they do bring power to the plate, ranking 4th in home runs. The Angels’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 23rd overall with a slightly higher batting average (22nd) and a middling home run count (17th). They do have an edge in stolen bases, ranking 7th compared to the Athletics’ 20th.

The bullpens also present a contrast. Oakland’s bullpen, ranked 15th, is average, while the Angels struggle significantly, ranked 28th in MLB. This could be a key factor late in the game if it remains close.

With both teams having identical moneylines at -110 and implied win probabilities of 50%, the game is expected to be a tight contest. Given the Athletics’ solid bullpen and power-hitting capability, they may have a slight edge in this series opener.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (92.9 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Keston Hiura – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Keston Hiura is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.1 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 9.5% Barrel% of the Oakland Athletics ranks them as the #5 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+13.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)