Player Props Preview for Yankees vs Orioles – 7/12/24

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are set to clash in a key American League East matchup on July 12, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are having great seasons, with the Orioles sporting a 57-36 record and the Yankees close behind at 56-39. This game marks the first in a series between these two division rivals.

The Orioles are coming off a rough outing, having been shut out 8-0 by the Cubs on July 11. The Yankees also faced a narrow defeat in their last game, losing 5-4 to the Rays. Despite these recent losses, both teams’ offenses have been potent this season. Baltimore’s offense is ranked 2nd in MLB, leading the league in home runs, while the Yankees are not far behind, with the 5th best offense and the 2nd most home runs.

The pitching matchup features Cade Povich for the Orioles and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Povich, a left-hander, has struggled this season with a 6.51 ERA and a 1-3 record over six starts. His high flyball rate (47%) could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. Additionally, Povich’s high walk rate (10.4%) could be exploited by the Yankees, who lead the league in drawing walks.

Cole, on the other hand, has also had a tough season by his standards, with a 6.75 ERA and a 1-1 record over four starts. However, his 5.08 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and might improve. His high flyball rate (46%) could be a concern against the Orioles, who lead MLB in home runs. Cole’s control issues (10.1% walk rate) might not be as problematic against Baltimore’s impatient offense, which ranks 4th in least walks.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Yankees to have a slight edge with a 53% win probability, compared to the implied 54% from betting markets. The Orioles are projected at 47%, slightly above their implied 46%. With both teams boasting high-powered offenses and shaky starting pitchers, expect a high-scoring affair. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting the potential for fireworks at Camden Yards.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Gerrit Cole’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (53.2% compared to 47% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees batters jointly rank among the elite in MLB this year (3rd-) in regard to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the best out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Heston Kjerstad has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 78 games (+12.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 63 games (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)