Player Props Preview for Reds vs Cubs – 5/31/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on May 31, 2025, there’s plenty on the line in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs stand at 35-22, riding the high of a strong season despite a setback in their last game on May 30, where they fell to the Reds 6-2. In contrast, the Reds enter the game with a 29-29 record, displaying a more average performance this season.

The pitching matchup features the Cubs’ Ben Brown, who has had a tumultuous season, sporting a 3-3 record and an alarming 6.39 ERA. However, his 3.30 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression. Brown’s last start was rough, getting knocked around for 8 earned runs in just 4 innings. He projects to strike out an average of 5.8 batters today, but his tendency to allow hits and walks could be a concern against a decent Reds lineup.

On the other side, Nick Lodolo is slated to start for Cincinnati. Lodolo has been more consistent, with a 4-4 record and a solid 3.39 ERA. He performed reasonably well in his last outing, allowing 3 earned runs over 5 innings. However, projections indicate that Lodolo may face challenges today, particularly against a Cubs offense that ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, excelling in batting average and home runs.

With the Cubs’ offense firing on all cylinders and their bullpen ranked 24th, the game total set at a low 7.0 runs hints at a tight contest. The Cubs have the edge as betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, suggesting they are likely to capitalize on their offensive firepower against a Reds team that will need to step up to pull off the upset.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Lodolo has utilized his change-up 5.9% more often this year (22.4%) than he did last season (16.5%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Carson Kelly has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last year’s 91.4-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Today, Kyle Tucker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.6% rate (90th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+9.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)