Player Props Preview for Red Sox vs Orioles – 8/16/24

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 16, 2024, in a pivotal American League East matchup. The Orioles, currently sitting at 72-50, are enjoying a strong season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 63-57, are having an above-average year. In their last game on August 15, the Orioles decisively defeated the Red Sox 5-1, continuing their momentum.

On the mound for Baltimore will be Corbin Burnes, who has been a standout this season with a 12-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.71. Burnes, ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, projects to pitch around 5.7 innings while allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters. However, his projections indicate he may be due for a slight regression based on his xFIP of 3.56. In contrast, the Red Sox will counter with Brennan Bernardino, whose performance has been less impressive; he is projected to pitch just 1.5 innings with a concerning strikeout rate of 1.6 per game.

The Orioles’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd overall in MLB this season. They lead the league in home runs, which could pose a significant challenge for Bernardino, who has struggled with walks and hits allowed. Meanwhile, the Red Sox boast a strong offense as well, ranking 5th in the league, but they might find it difficult to capitalize against Burnes.

The projections favor the Orioles significantly, suggesting they will score around 5.10 runs, while the Red Sox are expected to tally around 4.23 runs. With the Orioles riding high from their recent victory and their strong overall performance, they appear to be in a prime position to take this game as they seek to solidify their playoff standing.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Connor Wong has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .293 rate is a good deal higher than his .244 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Boston Red Sox batters as a unit rank 5th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Corbin Burnes has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 66 of their last 122 games (+18.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 66 games (+20.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 50% ROI)