Player Props Preview for Rangers vs Yankees – 8/11/24

Texas Rangers

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Texas Rangers on August 11, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial matchup after dropping their last game against the Rangers by a score of 9-4. Currently, the Yankees hold a strong record of 69-49, positioning themselves well in the American League, while the Rangers sit at 55-62, struggling to find their footing this season.

The Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has had an inconsistent season, evidenced by his recent performance where he was blown up for 7 earned runs in just 3 innings on August 2. His ERA of 4.10 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year, and he is ranked as the 141st best starting pitcher in the league. However, he is facing a Rangers offense that ranks 25th overall, which could provide an opportunity for him to bounce back.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Texas. Heaney has been struggling as well, with a 4-11 record and poor projections for today’s game, including an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed over 4.5 innings pitched. His low walk rate could be tested against a Yankees lineup that is patient but has been known to strike out.

The Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power with 149 home runs this season, and they are facing a pitcher like Heaney who allows a high flyball percentage. This matchup could tilt in favor of the Yankees, especially given the projections that indicate they will score an average of 5.32 runs in this game. With a high implied team total of 5.09 runs, New York looks poised to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Texas team.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Andrew Heaney’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph decline from last season’s 91.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Marcus Stroman may not stay in the game more than a couple innings considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has posted a .444 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 100th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 82 games (+18.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 37 games (+15.00 Units / 41% ROI)