Player Props Preview for Mariners vs Dodgers – 8/20/24

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On August 20, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Seattle Mariners at Dodger Stadium for the second game of their interleague series. The Dodgers, boasting a strong record of 74-52, are having a stellar season and sit comfortably in their division. In stark contrast, the Mariners are struggling at 64-62, showcasing an average performance this year. The two teams squared off just yesterday, where the Dodgers secured a convincing 3-0 victory, marking a solid shutout against their rivals.

Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, and despite being statistically one of the weaker pitchers in MLB at #159, there’s a silver lining. He faces a Mariners offense that has recorded the highest strikeout rate in MLB, potentially playing to Buehler’s advantage. While his 5.58 ERA is concerning, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky thus far, hinting at the potential for improvement.

On the other hand, Bryce Miller will pitch for the Mariners, coming off an impressive outing where he threw seven innings without allowing a run. With a #58 Power Rankings status, Miller has been solid this year, but he may face challenges against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 5th in MLB offensively. The projections indicate that the Dodgers are expected to score an impressive 5.53 runs on average in this matchup.

Given their recent form, the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -150 while the Mariners sit at +130. With the Dodgers’ powerhouse offense and Miller’s flyball tendencies, the stage is set for a high-scoring night, making it an exciting matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bryce Miller has gone to his four-seam fastball 15% less often this year (43.5%) than he did last season (58.5%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Luke Raley has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (93.5 mph) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (94.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Max Muncy, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 away games (+7.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 36% ROI)