Player Props Preview for D-Backs vs Royals – 7/24/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Kauffman Stadium on July 24, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. With both teams having contrasting seasons, this matchup brings interesting dynamics. The Royals, standing at 56-46, are having an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks are at an average 52-50.

Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, currently ranked #77 among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is set to start. Wacha, a right-hander with a 3.55 ERA, has been somewhat fortunate this season. His 4.10 SIERA suggests he might not sustain his current level of performance. Nonetheless, he has been reliable enough with a 7-6 record over 17 starts. On the other side, Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Although Nelson has a 7-6 record, his 4.78 ERA has been a weak point. However, his 3.90 FIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could perform better as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Royals rank 13th overall, with a solid 10th in team batting average and 8th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks boast a stronger 9th spot in overall offense and batting average. This suggests a potential edge for Arizona, especially given their relatively average power ranking in team home runs, standing at 16th, compared to the Royals’ 17th.

A key factor could be the projected pitching performances. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees Wacha pitching 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.6 batters—average numbers overall. Conversely, Nelson projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out just 3.4 batters, which are concerning metrics given the Royals’ low strikeout rate as a team.

Recent trends add another layer of intrigue. Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire for Kansas City over the last week, batting .684 with a 1.977 OPS, while Alek Thomas leads Arizona’s offense with a .364 batting average and 1.235 OPS over the same span.

Considering these factors, the Royals appear favored, with a moneyline of -130 indicating a 54% implied win probability. This game is anticipated to be tight, with a high game total of 9.0 runs, suggesting ample scoring opportunities.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Ryne Nelson projects to strikeout 3.2 batters in today’s outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona’s 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #21 team in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  This season, Michael Wacha has added a new pitch to his pitch mix (a slider), utilizing it on 7.7% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Arizona (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games (+17.50 Units / 83% ROI)