Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Cubs – 7/5/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 5, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting continuation of their series. The Cubs won decisively yesterday, routing the Cardinals 11-3, showcasing their offensive firepower while continuing their strong season with a 53-35 record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are battling to stay relevant at 47-42, still above average but clearly behind their rivals.

Drew Pomeranz is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, despite having made 26 appearances in relief this year, his first start of the season comes with a perfect 0.00 ERA, although his 4.04 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky. Pomeranz’s propensity to allow earned runs and hits could be problematic against the Cardinals, who rank 15th in MLB offensively.

Matthew Liberatore, also a left-handed pitcher, will go for the Cardinals. With a more extensive history, having started 16 games this season and posting a solid 3.70 ERA, he’s seen as an average option per the projections. Liberatore’s recent performance should not be overlooked; he pitched well in his last start on June 29, going six innings without giving up an earned run. However, his relatively low strikeout rate against a patient Cubs lineup may play to Chicago’s advantage.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, showing depth and power, notably in home runs and batting average. They face a Cardinals pitching staff that struggles against high-powered lineups. St. Louis’s bullpen ranks 13th, which is decent, but it could become a liability if they’re called upon early.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Matthew Liberatore’s 2103-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 11th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #22 offense in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Drew Pomeranz may not remain in the game more than a couple frames considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (+14.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)