Player Props Preview for Blue Jays vs D-Backs – 7/13/24

Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Toronto Blue Jays gear up for the second game of their series on July 13, 2024, at Chase Field. The D-Backs are having a middling season with a 48-47 record, while the Blue Jays, with a 43-51 record, are underperforming. Arizona took the first game in a close 5-4 victory, hinting at another tightly contested matchup today.

Arizona will send Yilber Diaz to the mound. Despite being ranked #163 among MLB starting pitchers, Diaz has posted a stellar 1.50 ERA in his lone start this season. However, his 3.47 xFIP suggests that he has benefited from some good fortune and might regress. Diaz is projected to pitch 4.6 innings today and allow 2.5 earned runs, making him a less reliable option for deep innings.

On the other side, Toronto counters with Jose Berrios, who has an 8-6 record and a solid 3.76 ERA over 19 starts. Berrios’s 4.37 xFIP also suggests he’s been a bit lucky, but his track record shows he can be a dependable starter. Projections have him pitching 5.5 innings and allowing 3.0 earned runs, which are below-average marks for him but still serviceable.

Offensively, the D-Backs have the upper hand. Arizona’s lineup is ranked 10th in overall offense and 8th in team batting average, while Toronto’s lineup sits at 23rd overall and 22nd in batting average. Christian Walker continues to be a key player for Arizona, with 22 home runs and a .840 OPS this season. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads Toronto with a .287 batting average and 13 home runs, but he hasn’t received much support from the rest of the lineup.

Arizona’s bullpen, ranking 16th in the power rankings, is stronger compared to Toronto’s 22nd-ranked bullpen. Coupled with their home-field advantage and a more potent offense, the D-Backs have an edge.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Arizona’s win probability stands at 52%, slightly higher than their implied probability of 55%. This suggests the betting markets see this as a close game, but the D-Backs hold a slight advantage. Look for Arizona to leverage their better offensive lineup and bullpen strength in tonight’s clash.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jose Berrios’s 2159-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 24th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Yilber Diaz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Yilber Diaz has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.3% rate (92nd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)