Player Props Preview for Angels vs Nationals – 8/9/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in a challenging season. The Nationals currently sit at 52-64, while the Angels are slightly behind at 51-64. With both teams struggling, this Interleague matchup takes on added significance as they look to build momentum.

In their last outings, the Nationals suffered a disappointing 9-5 loss to the San Francisco Giants, while the Angels celebrated a solid 9-4 victory over the New York Yankees. This stark contrast in recent performances could set the stage for an intriguing series opener at Nationals Park.

On the mound, Washington is projected to start Mitchell Parker, who has been less than stellar this season, ranking as the 200th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite a decent ERA of 4.06, Parker’s recent performance has been inconsistent, with projections indicating he will pitch an average of only 4.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out just 3.9 batters. In his last start, Parker pitched well, going 6 innings with no earned runs, but questions remain about his overall effectiveness.

The Angels counter with Jose Soriano, who ranks 64th among MLB starting pitchers. With a strong ERA of 3.47 and a higher projected innings pitched average at 5.8, Soriano is expected to be a tougher challenge for the Nationals. His ability to induce ground balls could play to his advantage against a Nationals offense that struggles with power, ranking 29th in home runs this season.

According to projections, the Angels are favored in this matchup, with a projected win probability higher than what the betting markets suggest. With both teams needing a spark, this game could be pivotal in shifting their respective fortunes.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a notable advantage over flyball bats, Jose Soriano and his 52.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s matchup facing 6 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Brandon Drury has posted a .271 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 8th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will be at an advantage facing 8 batters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)