Player Props for Royals vs Nationals – Wednesday September 25, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will host the Kansas City Royals on September 25, 2024, at Nationals Park, marking the second game of their interleague series. The Nationals, who have endured a challenging season with a 69-88 record, are looking to bounce back after losing the series opener to the Royals. Kansas City, sitting at 83-74 and enjoying an above-average season, is aiming to capitalize on their momentum and secure another win to strengthen their position. With both teams having different aspirations, it’s a pivotal game for the Royals as they push for a strong finish.

On the mound, the Nationals will start DJ Herz, a left-hander who ranks as the 92nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite an average 4.30 ERA, Herz’s 3.68 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better. His high strikeout rate may pose a challenge for the Royals’ low-strikeout offense, which ranks 2nd in fewest strikeouts in the league.

The Royals will counter with Michael Lorenzen, whose 3.43 ERA belies a less favorable 5.00 xFIP, indicating he’s pitched better than underlying metrics suggest. Lorenzen faces a Nationals offense that ranks 23rd in the league but excels in stolen bases, leading MLB in that category. However, the Nationals’ lack of power, ranking 29th in home runs, might not exploit Lorenzen’s high-flyball tendency.

Betting markets have the Royals as slight favorites with a -135 moneyline, implying a 55% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Nationals a 48% chance of winning, indicating a closer matchup than the odds suggest. With both teams projected to score under five runs, expect a tight, low-scoring affair in Washington.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Michael Lorenzen has used his sinker 9.4% more often this year (21.2%) than he did last season (11.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  In his last outing, DJ Herz gave up a colossal 7 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Crews has been unlucky this year. His .253 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)