Player Props for Royals vs Nationals – Wednesday September 25, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Washington Nationals

As fall begins to settle in, the Washington Nationals take on the Kansas City Royals at Nationals Park on September 25, 2024, in what serves as the second game of this interleague series. With both teams far apart in performance this season, Washington is in the midst of a rough campaign, sitting at 69-88, with no playoff contention in sight. The Royals, on the other hand, boast a record of 83-74, highlighting their above-average performance and keeping them in the playoff conversation.

The Nationals dropped the first game of this series and look to bounce back with DJ Herz on the mound. Herz, the 92### ranked starting pitcher, is coming off an unlucky run as indicated by his 3.69 xFIP, suggesting that better days might be ahead. He’ll aim to capitalize on a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in the league in avoiding strikeouts, potentially challenging his high 28.5### K% strength.

Across the diamond, the Royals counter with Michael Lorenzen. Despite his impressive 3.43### ERA, underlying metrics paint a different picture, with a 5.00 xFIP suggesting a fortunate streak. He faces a Nationals offense struggling in the power department, ranking 29th in home runs but excelling in stolen bases as the league leader, indicating a reliance on small ball.

Offensively, Kansas City’s lineup enters the matchup with an edge. Ranking 14th in power rankings and 7th in batting average, they have been particularly efficient lately led by Bobby Witt Jr., who boasts a .471 batting average over his last five games. Joey Gallo has been Washington’s hottest hitter over the same span, adding some hope with a .333 batting average and a 1.218 OPS.

Betting markets reflect a close contest despite contrasting seasons, giving Kansas City a slight edge. Yet, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with these probabilities, setting up an intriguing showdown in the nation’s capital.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Michael Lorenzen has used his sinker 9.4% more often this year (21.2%) than he did last season (11.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Kansas City Royals hitters have struggled as it relates to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-worst in baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+100)
  The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Crews has been unlucky this year. His .262 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)