Player Props for Reds vs Braves – Tuesday July 23, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 9, they enter the series with a solid record of 78-65, showcasing above-average performance this season. The Reds, on the other hand, sit at 69-75, struggling with a below-average record. This matchup holds significance as it marks the first game of the series between these two National League foes.

In their most recent outings, the Braves secured a narrow 4-3 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Reds bested the New York Mets 3-1. Notably, Charlie Morton is projected to take the mound for Atlanta, following a strong performance on September 4, where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Morton’s ERA of 4.24 this year is slightly above average, but he remains an average pitcher according to advanced-stats Power Rankings.

The projections favor the Braves significantly, as they are expected to score around 4.98 runs in this game, compared to the Reds’ projected total of 4.56 runs. Atlanta’s lineup boasts good power potential, ranking 10th in MLB in home runs, while Cincinnati’s offense, although average overall, struggles with a 27th ranking in team batting average. With Marcell Ozuna leading the Braves and performing well this season, he will look to exploit the Reds’ below-average bullpen, currently ranked 25th in MLB.

Investors should consider that the betting market shows Atlanta as the decisive favorite with a moneyline of -185, while the projections suggest that the Braves may offer value due to their higher potential output, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Generating 15.1 outs per start this year on average, Nick Martinez checks in at the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In terms of his home runs, Santiago Espinal has been very fortunate this year. His 16.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 16.3° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Charlie Morton’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.7% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 126 games (+33.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 59 away games (+8.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+17.95 Units / 28% ROI)