Player Props for Phillies vs Giants – Monday July 07, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 7, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League. The Giants hold a record of 49-42, reflecting an above-average season, while the Phillies sit at 53-37, showcasing a strong campaign. Despite the Giants’ respectable showing, they face an uphill battle in this matchup, particularly given the recent form of Cristopher Sanchez, who is projected to start for Philadelphia. Sanchez has been exceptional this season, with an impressive 2.68 ERA and a Power Ranking that places him 10th among MLB starting pitchers.

In their last outing, the Giants struggled, managing only a few runs against a strong pitching performance, which adds pressure to their lineup that ranks 24th in the league. Their offense has been underwhelming, particularly in terms of power and consistency, ranking 25th in team batting average and home runs. This lack of offensive firepower could be a significant disadvantage against Sanchez, who is projected to allow only 2.4 earned runs on average.

On the flip side, Landen Roupp, expected to take the mound for San Francisco, has shown flashes of brilliance with a solid 3.48 ERA but has been somewhat lucky, as indicated by his elevated 4.15 xFIP. Roupp’s high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could be exploited by a Phillies offense that ranks 9th overall and excels at drawing walks.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, expectations for a high-scoring affair are tempered. The Giants are currently seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, while the projections suggest they might be undervalued given their strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB. This matchup will hinge on whether Roupp can limit the damage against a potent Phillies lineup, making for an intriguing battle at Oracle Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have 7 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kyle Schwarber has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 40.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 31.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Landen Roupp was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and posted 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under Hits
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.95 Units / 18% ROI)