Player Props for Marlins vs Nationals – Monday September 01, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

On September 1, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are navigating underwhelming seasons, with the Nationals at 53-83 and the Marlins at 65-72. The Nationals find themselves in the 4th position in the National League East, while the Marlins are just barely above them, sitting at 3rd. In their last outing, the Nationals lost 7-4 to the Marlins, who have shown a bit of momentum after winning their last game 5-1.

The matchup features two struggling pitchers, Andrew Alvarez and Lake Bachar. Alvarez ranks as the 215th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, a clear indication of his struggles. He’s projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs, making him a pitcher to watch for runs against. His high hit projection of 5.1 also raises eyebrows given the Nationals’ offensive rankings, which are mostly poor, including 24th overall in MLB.

On the other side, Lake Bachar, while also not boasting a stellar performance record, comes in with a decent ERA of 3.39. The projections indicate that he might allow 0.8 earned runs on average, and with a low walk rate, he could have an edge against a Nationals lineup that ranks 5th least in walks drawn.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, oddsmakers see this as a close matchup, with the Nationals carrying a moneyline of -120. Given that the Marlins are average in offense and the Nationals struggle, the projections suggest the Nationals might find it tough to capitalize on any pitching mismatches. That said, if they capitalize on home advantage, they could defy expectations.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Lake Bachar – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Lake Bachar meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Derek Hill generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Alvarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Heriberto Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andres Chaparro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Andres Chaparro is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Brady House, C.J. Stubbs).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 115 games (+12.57 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 71 games (+19.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)