Player Props for Mariners vs Twins – Wednesday June 25, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on June 25, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins, with a record of 37-42, are struggling through a below-average season, while the Mariners, boasting a record of 41-37, are enjoying an above-average campaign. In their previous matchup on June 24, the Twins fell to the Mariners by a narrow score of 6-5, extending their recent woes.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who has been solid this season with a 7-3 record and an impressive ERA of 3.06, ranking him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite his success, Ryan’s xFIP of 3.67 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. He faces a challenging test against a Mariners offense that ranks 7th in MLB, having hit 105 home runs this season, making them one of the most powerful lineups in the league.

The Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who has struggled with a 1-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.16. However, his xFIP of 3.53 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, and projections suggest he could improve. Kirby’s last outing on June 20 saw him allow 4 earned runs over 5 innings, further complicating his role in this matchup.

With the Twins’ offense ranking 16th overall but struggling at 21st in batting average, they will need to capitalize on Ryan’s strong performance to turn their season around. Meanwhile, the Mariners, led by their best hitter who has an impressive 1.053 OPS, will look to exploit Ryan’s flyball tendencies. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested game, and the Twins’ current moneyline suggests they may have a slight edge, but bettors should watch closely as both teams vie for critical wins.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. George Kirby has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In today’s game, Luke Raley is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (84th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Joe Ryan’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ty France – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Rating 5th-steepest in MLB this year, Minnesota Twins bats collectively have recorded a 15.4° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to measure power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-175)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)