Player Props for Guardians vs Yankees – Tuesday June 03, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

New York Yankees

On June 3, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be a high-stakes matchup. Both teams are enjoying commendable seasons, with the Yankees standing at 36-22 and the Guardians at 32-26. The Yankees recently secured a win against the Chicago White Sox, triumphing 7-3 on June 1, while the Guardians came off a victory over the Boston Red Sox, winning 4-2 in their last game.

Looking at pitching matchups, the Yankees are set to start Carlos Rodon, who comes in with a strong 7-3 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA. Rodon has shown dominance lately, even throwing a complete game shutout in his last outing on May 27, where he struck out 10 batters and allowed no earned runs. His 3.11 FIP indicates he might have had some good fortune this season, but there’s little doubt about his abilities as he faces a Guardians lineup that ranks just 22nd in MLB offense.

On the other side, the Guardians will rely on Tanner Bibee, who has a 4-5 record this year and a respectable 3.86 ERA. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat lucky as well, especially given that he faces one of the league’s most potent offenses. The Yankees rank 2nd in total home runs with 95, and they also boast the 2nd best overall offense according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Betting perspectives lean heavily in favor of the Yankees, who are a significant favorite with a moneyline of -200, indicating a strong likelihood of victory. That confidence is supported further by their high implied team total of 4.64 runs against a struggling Guardians defense. As the first game of the series unfolds, fans and bettors alike will be watching how these two teams stack up on the field.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has dropped 134 rpm this season (2227 rpm) below where it was last year (2361 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Carlos Rodon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+7.42 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+175)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 75% ROI)