Player Props for Giants vs Yankees – Friday April 11, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

New York Yankees

On April 11, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the San Francisco Giants in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season, with the Yankees at 7-5 and the Giants at 9-3. Notably, the Yankees’ offense ranks as the 1st best in MLB, showcasing their powerful lineup, while the Giants sit at 17th overall, suggesting a significant disparity in offensive strength.

The Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has struggled early this season with a 7.27 ERA and a below-average xFIP of 4.76. He has allowed 2.4 earned runs on average in his projected 5.4 innings, which could be a concern against a Giants offense that, while not the most potent, can capitalize on mistakes. Meanwhile, Robbie Ray takes the mound for San Francisco with a solid 3.18 ERA and a 2-0 record, although his xFIP of 5.92 indicates he may have been a bit fortunate in his outings thus far.

The Yankees’ offense, known for their power, ranks 2nd in home runs this season, which could pose a challenge for Ray, a high-flyball pitcher facing a lineup that thrives on turning flyballs into long balls. Additionally, Stroman’s high walk rate (10.5 BB%) against a Giants offense that walks infrequently (5th least in MLB) may give the pitcher an advantage in this matchup.

Betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Yankees holding a moneyline of -130 and an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. Given their offensive prowess and the pitching matchup, the Yankees may have the edge to secure a victory in this pivotal game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Robbie Ray has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54.9% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  LaMonte Wade Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Marcus Stroman’s 90.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 4th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Cody Bellinger may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Anthony Volpe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)