Arizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-120/+100)-115
As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 3, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive matchup following a narrow 9-8 victory for the Diamondbacks in their previous game. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a 59-51 record, are positioned above average this season, while the Pirates sit at 55-54, reflecting an average performance.
On the mound, Mitch Keller is set to start for the Pirates. Despite his ranking as the 132nd best starter in MLB, Keller boasts a solid 3.30 ERA and a 10-5 win/loss record this season. The projections suggest he may allow an average of 3.1 earned runs over approximately 5.7 innings today. However, he has a tendency to give up hits and walks, potentially putting pressure on his defense.
Jordan Montgomery, starting for the Diamondbacks, has had a challenging season, with a poor 6.51 ERA. While his luck may improve, as indicated by his 4.75 xFIP, he struggled in his last outing, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings pitched. This could play to the Pirates’ advantage, especially considering their recent offensive surge, led by Oneil Cruz, who has been their best hitter over the last week, posting a .360 batting average and 1.167 OPS.
The game total is set at 8.5 runs, and betting markets see this as a close contest, with both teams having similar moneyline odds. The projections lean slightly in favor of the Diamondbacks, anticipating an average of 5.14 runs, compared to the Pirates’ 4.81. With Keller’s recent form and the Pirates’ struggling offense ranked 28th in MLB, it will be crucial for Pittsburgh to capitalize on Montgomery’s recent struggles if they hope to even the series.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Jordan Montgomery will surrender an average of 3.07 earned runs in today’s outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Eugenio Suarez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.2% seasonal rate to 22.9% in the last two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Mitch Keller’s cutter percentage has decreased by 7% from last season to this one (24.3% to 17.3%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Bryan De La Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.7-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+170)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 54 games (+19.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)