Player Props for D-Backs vs Marlins – Monday August 19, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins

The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Miami Marlins in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at LoanDepot Park on August 19, 2024. Arizona enters this game with a solid record of 69-56, significantly outpacing Miami, which sits at 46-78. This series opener comes after the Marlins secured a narrow 3-2 win against the New York Mets yesterday, while the Diamondbacks fell to the Tampa Bay Rays 8-7 in a tightly contested battle.

Projected starters Adam Oller and Brandon Pfaadt illustrate the stark contrast between these two teams. Oller, who ranks 320th among pitchers, has struggled throughout the season, projecting to allow 2.9 earned runs with a dismal 5.2 hits allowed average. In comparison, Pfaadt has established himself as a reliable arm, currently ranked 59th, with a projected 2.3 earned runs allowed.

The Marlins’ offense has been one of the worst in MLB, ranking 29th overall and particularly struggling with power, sitting at 29th in home runs. Conversely, the Diamondbacks boast the 4th-best offense in the league, aided by Ketel Marte’s standout performance, which includes 30 home runs and a robust .930 OPS this season.

While the Marlins are currently seen as heavy underdogs, gaining a +175 moneyline with a low team total of 3.54 runs, projections indicate a potential for value betting on them. THE BAT X projects the Marlins to exceed expectations slightly, forecasting an average of 3.82 runs. This dynamic creates an opportunity for those willing to back the underdog, especially with Pfaadt facing a Miami lineup that struggles against pitchers who limit walks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Over his last 3 GS, Brandon Pfaadt has experienced a sizeable increase in his fastball velocity: from 93.1 mph over the whole season to 94.2 mph lately.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kevin Newman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Using Statcast data, Kevin Newman is in the 1st percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .248.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Adam Oller projects to strikeout an average of 3.8 bats in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Derek Hill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+20.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 92 games (+18.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)