Player Props for Cubs vs Reds – Thursday September 18, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Cincinnati Reds

On September 18, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park for the first game of their series. With the Cubs currently sitting atop the National League Central, boasting an impressive 88-64 record, they have already secured their playoff positioning. In contrast, the Reds have a more modest 76-76 mark, indicating an average season as they seek to build momentum.

Both teams come into this matchup with varying fortunes. The Reds recently enjoyed a victory over the Cubs, winning 6-2 in their last encounter. However, Cincinnati’s ace Hunter Greene is looking to bounce back after a rough outing on September 13, where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 2 innings. Greene’s season ERA sits at a solid 3.01, reflecting his strong overall performance, though advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Colin Rea, who has struggled with consistency this season. Although Rea has a record of 10-6 with an ERA of 4.23, projections indicate he’s likely to regress further. Rea’s last start yielded 3 earned runs in 5 innings, and he projects poorly for this matchup, allowing 3.0 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Cubs are ranked 8th in MLB, driven by a potent lineup. In contrast, the Reds rank 19th, reflecting their struggles to generate consistent scoring. This disparity in offensive firepower gives the Cubs a significant advantage.

The projections indicate that the Reds should be favored in this matchup despite their recent struggles, with an implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Cubs’ 3.96. Given these dynamics, this game has the potential to swing in favor of the Reds if Greene can regain his form.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Colin Rea’s four-seamer percentage has spiked by 22.8% from last season to this one (19.9% to 42.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Busch can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• As a team, Chicago Cubs hitters have performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-best in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.2 mph this season (98.8 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Austin Hays has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .329 rate is a fair amount higher than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds grades them out as the #28 team in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 129 games (+28.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 142 games (+14.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Moises Ballesteros has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.95 Units / 67% ROI)