Player Props Analysis for Royals vs White Sox – Tuesday July 30th, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 30, 2024, they find themselves deep in the American League Central basement with a dismal 27-82 record. Meanwhile, the Royals are faring much better, sitting above .500 at 58-49. This game marks the second contest in their series, with the Royals aiming to solidify their position in the standings.

The pitching matchup features Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox and Michael Wacha for the Royals. Cannon has struggled this season, holding a 1-5 record with an ERA of 4.43###101, and is ranked 264th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This places him among the worst in the league. On the other hand, Wacha has been reliable, boasting a 7-6 record and a solid 3.65 ERA, ranking 87th among starters. However, Wacha’s 4.18 SIERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season and might face regression.

The White Sox offense has been abysmal, ranked 30th in overall offensive power and 29th in batting average. Their power numbers also lag, ranking 28th in home runs. The lone bright spot has been Paul DeJong, who has been the team’s best hitter over the last seven games with a .286 batting average and an .872 OPS.

Conversely, the Royals’ offense is more balanced, ranking 13th overall, 11th in batting average, and 19th in home runs. Bobby Witt Jr. has been red-hot, hitting .440 with an impressive 1.142 OPS over the last week. His recent performance underscores the Royals’ offensive advantage.

Bullpen performance could also be a deciding factor. The White Sox bullpen ranks 30th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, the worst in MLB, while the Royals’ bullpen is a more respectable 19th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the White Sox a low implied team total of 3.71 runs, while the Royals have a significantly higher implied total of 4.79 runs. Given their strong form and the White Sox’s struggles, the Royals enter as favorites with a -175 moneyline, reflecting a 61% implied win probability.

If the White Sox are to pull off an upset, they’ll need an above-average performance from Cannon and a rare offensive explosion. However, all indicators point to the Royals maintaining their edge in this American League Central clash.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Michael Wacha’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.5 mph this season (92.9 mph) over where it was last year (91.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City has performed as the #29 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Jonathan Cannon has a mean strikeout projection of 3.3 hitters today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nick Senzel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nick Senzel’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+8.94 Units / 6% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 47 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)