Player Props Analysis for Rockies vs Phillies – Wednesday April 2nd, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Philadelphia Phillies

On April 2, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Colorado Rockies at Citizens Bank Park in a pivotal National League matchup. The Phillies enter this game with a strong record of 3-1, showcasing their elite offense, which ranks 5th in MLB. They are projected to start Zack Wheeler, who is having an impressive season with a 1.50 ERA and an xERA that suggests he may have been a bit lucky so far. Wheeler’s ability to limit earned runs while striking out a projected 8.8 batters today highlights his potential dominance on the mound.

In contrast, the Rockies are struggling at 1-3, with their offense ranked a dismal 51st in MLB. They will counter with Kyle Freeland, whose 0.00 ERA is deceiving, as his projections indicate he might not maintain that level of performance. Freeland faces a tough challenge against a powerful Phillies lineup that has hit 8 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

This matchup is intriguing, especially given that Wheeler is a high-groundball pitcher facing a Rockies offense that has hit only 2 home runs, the 3rd least in MLB. Meanwhile, Freeland’s high strikeout rate could be mitigated by a Phillies offense that strikes out less frequently than most teams.

As for the betting landscape, the Phillies are significant favorites with a moneyline of -315, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.45 runs. In contrast, the Rockies are underdogs at +265, with a low implied total of 2.55 runs. Given these factors, the Phillies are poised to capitalize on their advantages and continue their strong start to the season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
  Given the 0.46 discrepancy between Kyle Freeland’s 4.98 ERA and his 4.52 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and ought to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph grades out in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-315)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 74 games at home (+12.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+265)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 23 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Johan Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+4.05 Units / 58% ROI)