Player Props Analysis for Red Sox vs Guardians – Friday April 25th, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

Cleveland Guardians

On April 25, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are closely matched, with the Guardians holding a record of 14-10, while the Red Sox are at 14-13. The Guardians are having a strong season, while the Red Sox have shown signs of being above average.

Cleveland’s Ben Lively is projected to take the mound against Boston’s Tanner Houck. Lively, despite being ranked as the 278th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable ERA of 3.86 this year. However, the projections suggest he may be due for a downturn, as his 4.40 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat lucky. On the other hand, Houck has struggled, with a high ERA of 7.66 and a ranking of 52nd among starting pitchers. This mismatch could give the Guardians an edge, especially as they face a Red Sox offense that ranks 1st in strikeouts.

While the Guardians’ offense ranks just 21st overall, they have shown flashes of power, ranking 11th in home runs. Conversely, the Red Sox boast a top-10 offense, sitting 9th in MLB, and have performed well in terms of batting average at 10th. However, their ability to capitalize on Lively’s low strikeout rate may be limited, as they are facing one of the league’s least strikeout-prone offenses.

Cleveland’s bullpen ranks 1st in MLB, providing a strong late-game advantage, while Boston’s ranks 7th. With both teams projected to score 4.50 runs, this matchup may turn into a tightly contested battle, making it essential for bettors to keep an eye on the performances of both starting pitchers.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Considering that groundball hitters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Tanner Houck and his 51.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot today squaring off against 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Trevor Story has strong power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ben Lively is a pitch-to-contact type (14th percentile K%) — great news for Story.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ben Lively has added a cutter to his pitch mix this year and has worked it in 7% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Nolan Jones has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year’s 88.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bo Naylor, the Guardians’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Kristian Campbell has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+14.60 Units / 146% ROI)