Player Props Analysis for Phillies vs Reds – Wednesday August 13th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 13, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Philadelphia Phillies in the third game of their series. The Phillies enter with a solid 69-50 record, while the Reds hold a respectable 63-58 mark. Although both teams are vying for postseason positioning, the Reds are currently running out of time to catch up in Wild Card standings. In their last matchup, the Reds emerged victorious, defeating the Phillies 6-1, a result that may boost their confidence heading into this game.

Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene is slated to take the mound, and while he boasts a 2.72 ERA this season, advanced stats suggest he may have enjoyed a touch of luck thus far, as indicated by his 3.42 xFIP. Greene projects to average 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out 6.6 batters per game, which is promising. However, his struggles with hits and walks could play a pivotal role in this matchup. In his last start on June 3, he performed well, surrendering just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez will start for the Phillies. Sanchez currently ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a superb 2.36 ERA. His projections suggest he’ll pitch 5.8 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, and while he’s been effective, some peripheral indicators imply he might regress. Notably, Sanchez surrendered only 1 earned run in his latest outing, showcasing his dominance.

The Reds’ offense ranks 17th in MLB, indicating average performance, while the Phillies sit much higher at 8th, emphasizing their strength at the plate. Betting markets are giving the Reds a +105 moneyline, hinting at the expectation of a close contest, while projections indicate the game total at 8.0 runs—an average line.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 8 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Cristopher Sanchez has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Nick Castellanos has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 74.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has jumped 1 mph this season (98.6 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ke’Bryan Hayes usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters as a group place 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 7.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 117 games (+28.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 37 away games (+17.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)