Player Props Analysis for Padres vs Marlins – Saturday August 10th, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on August 10, 2024, the stakes are clear: the Padres are looking to solidify their playoff positioning while the Marlins aim to salvage pride after losing the first game of this series 6-2. The Marlins’ struggles this season are evident, as they sit with a dismal record of 43-74, while the Padres have a robust 65-52 record.

On the mound, Roddery Munoz is set to start for the Marlins. He has faced difficulties this season, posting a 5.68 ERA and ranking as the 330th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is among the least effective pitchers. Munoz’s projections suggest he will struggle again, expected to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing around 3 earned runs. Conversely, Matt Waldron takes the hill for the Padres, boasting a solid 3.79 ERA and a more favorable matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB. Waldron is projected to pitch 5.5 innings with an above-average earned run projection of 2.5.

The projections suggest the Padres will score 5.29 runs on average, significantly higher than the Marlins’ projected 3.99 runs. This discrepancy is reflected in the betting lines, where the Padres are favored with a moneyline of -195. The Marlins’ best hitter, Jake Burger, has shown flashes of brilliance, but the overall offensive depth simply isn’t there compared to Jurickson Profar and the Padres, who rank 1st in MLB in team batting average.

With the Marlins’ bullpen ranked 14th and the Padres’ at 5th, the advantage clearly lies with San Diego as they look to capitalize on their opponent’s weaknesses and continue their push for the postseason.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Matt Waldron’s 90-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 11th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, posting a .382 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .059 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Roddery Munoz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Roddery Munoz has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Xavier Edwards has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games at home (+21.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-190)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 away games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 39 games (+19.70 Units / 51% ROI)