Player Props Analysis for D-Backs vs Dodgers – Friday August 29th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on August 29, 2025, in the first game of a crucial series. The Dodgers currently sit at 77-57, enjoying a strong season, while the Diamondbacks are at 66-69, having an average year. The Dodgers are positioned well in the playoff race, making this matchup significant.

In their previous game, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively and continuing to rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB. They are also 4th in team batting average and 2nd in home runs, highlighting their power at the plate. The projections suggest that the Dodgers could score nearly 5 runs today, which aligns with their offensive capabilities.

On the mound, Blake Snell is projected to start for the Dodgers. Snell has been impressive this season, holding a 1.97 ERA and ranking as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status. However, he does struggle with control, as evidenced by his 11.1 BB%. This aspect could be pivotal against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 6th in walks drawn. Snell’s projected stats today include 5.5 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed, which may set the stage for a competitive outing.

For the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen will take the mound. Gallen has faced challenges this season, with a 5.13 ERA and a 9-13 record. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.0 innings and allow 3.3 earned runs, which might not hold up against the potent Dodgers lineup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Zac Gallen has been unlucky this year, posting a 5.13 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.34 — a 0.79 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ketel Marte has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph dropping to 81.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Blake Snell’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (94.8 mph) below where it was last year (95.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Andy Pages is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 107 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.95 Units / 88% ROI)