Player Props Analysis for Athletics vs Mets – Tuesday August 13th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Oakland Athletics on August 13, 2024, in the first game of their interleague series at Citi Field. Currently, the Mets hold a record of 61-57, positioning themselves as a competitive team in a tight race, while the Athletics sit at 50-69, struggling throughout the season. The Mets are coming off a tough loss to the Seattle Mariners, where they were defeated 12-1, which highlights their need to bounce back. Meanwhile, the Athletics are riding a wave of momentum after a solid 8-4 victory against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Mets’ starting pitcher Paul Blackburn takes the mound with a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.86 this season, which is commendable given his ranking as the 182nd best pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. Blackburn’s recent performance was strong; he pitched six innings with just one earned run and struck out six batters in his last start on August 7. His ability to generate ground balls (48% GB%) will be crucial against an Athletics offense that, while powerful with the 4th most home runs in MLB, has struggled overall.

On the other side, Oakland’s Joe Boyle will look to improve from his erratic outings, including a disastrous start back on May 5 where he allowed four earned runs in just one inning. With a 7.16 ERA this season, he ranks among the worst in the league, making it challenging for the Athletics to rely on him.

The projections favor the Mets, who are expected to score around 4.60 runs, while the Athletics are projected for 4.16 runs. Given their offensive strength, particularly with Francisco Lindor leading the charge, the Mets should have the edge in this matchup. With a significant moneyline favoring the Mets at -180, this game presents an opportunity for bettors to consider the value in wagering on the Mets as they seek to regain their footing after a disappointing loss.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Joe Boyle in the 81st percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Seth Brown is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Seth Brown, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Paul Blackburn was in good form in his last outing and allowed 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Jose Iglesias has been lucky this year, compiling a .363 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .288 — a .075 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)