Player Prop Picks for Twins vs Rays – 5/28/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Tampa Bay Rays

On May 28, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Minnesota Twins at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their series. Both teams are looking to secure a crucial win, especially after the Twins edged the Rays 4-2 in the previous matchup on May 27, 2025. Tampa Bay currently stands at 27-27, while Minnesota boasts a 30-24 record, indicating the Twins are having a solid season compared to the Rays’ average performance.

Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound for the Rays, having made 10 starts this season with a 3-4 record and a stellar 2.60 ERA. His last outing on May 23 saw him pitch six innings of shutout baseball, giving him momentum heading into this game. However, Rasmussen’s 3.51 xFIP suggests he might have had some luck so far, and today’s matchup against a low-walk Twins offense may prove challenging, as they rank 4th in MLB in fewest walks.

On the other side, Pablo Lopez will pitch for the Twins. With a 4-2 record and a remarkable 2.31 ERA across 9 starts, Lopez also comes off a solid performance, allowing just 1 earned run in six innings during his last game. The projections indicate he’s likely to allow around 2.6 earned runs today, which is above average.

Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 20th in MLB, while Minnesota sits at 22nd, indicating both lineups have struggled this season. However, the Rays lead the league in stolen bases, which could create scoring opportunities against Lopez, who has shown vulnerabilities in allowing hits.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Pablo Lopez faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Carlos Correa’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 92.3-mph mark last season has decreased to 89.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (+110)
  The Minnesota Twins projected batting order projects as the 5th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2501-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 92nd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Batters such as Danny Jansen with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Pablo Lopez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays hitters jointly grade out 28th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)